- The Polymarket trader who bet heavily on a Donald Trump victory has done much more than previously thought.
- A new study from Chainalysis estimates a total profit of more than $85 million, up from $48 million.
- Up to 11 accounts are managed by the same merchant, the firm said.
A Polymarket trader who bet tens of millions on Donald Trump’s presidential victory appears to have made a far bigger profit than previously known.
A new estimate now puts that figure at more than $85 million, well above the earlier figure of 48 million dollarsaccording to research by the blockchain analytics firm Chain analysis.
The firm also said as many as 11 accounts were linked to the same so-called whale trader, recently revealed as A French merchant known as Theo. The whale was previously believed to have operated four accounts.
There was speculation that the bets and their effect on Polymarket odds for the presidential election were a campaign to sway sentiment towards Trump. But in one Wall Street Journal interview last week Théo pointed out that the bet simply reflects a high conviction prospect.
It was not always certain that the trader would succeed: one day before the election, his four known accounts had about $3 million in unrealized losses as the competition tightened.
Collectively, Polymarket traders are betting about $3.7 billion on who will win the US presidency. Since then, the jump has been triggered French gambling regulators to research the site and make sure it complies with domestic law.